It is official, the NFL has formally gone bonkers. There isn’t any skilled sports activities league that thrives on parity greater than the NFL and after 102 years of existence, it seems the NFL may need lastly reached full parity. I assumed it could take no less than 312 years for that to occur, however no, the NFL did it in 102.
Each sport is unpredictable and in case you want proof, simply contemplate this: Of the 16 video games performed in Week 4, 15 of them had been inside one rating within the fourth quarter, which is probably the most in NFL historical past for one week. Additionally, there have been 23 video games determined by three factors or fewer this season, which is probably the most in NFL historical past by 4 weeks. Mainly, each sport is shut and any staff can win, and I feel what I am making an attempt to say right here is that I’m blaming all of my dangerous picks on the NFL for being so unpredictable. I hate unpredictable. If I wished unpredictable, I would purchase a cat (As everyone knows, cats are notoriously unpredictable).
Anyway, let’s get to the picks.
Really, earlier than we get to the picks, here is a fast reminder that you could take a look at the weekly picks from each CBSSports.com NFL skilled by clicking right here, however you needn’t click on over this week, as a result of we’ve extra vital issues to go over proper now, like why you need to join the Decide Six publication that we’ve right here at CBSSports.com.
Based mostly on my unscientific analysis, I’ve discovered that roughly 57% of the individuals who learn this picks column want they might get an e mail from me every single day. Effectively, YOU CAN. I write the Decide Six publication and it comes out each week day. If you would like it despatched to your inbox, all it’s important to do is click on right here and subscribe. When you join, you will begin getting one e mail per day the place I will be concerning each NFL-related matter I can consider and even ones that I am unable to consider. If you happen to’re questioning how that is doable, you will must subscribe.
Though I am writing the publication, I nonetheless make time in my busy schedule to hassle Will Brinson 4 days per week on the Decide Six Podcast. For Tuesday’s episode, which you’ll be able to hearken to by clicking right here, we spent roughly 27 minutes arguing about who’s going to win the NFC West, a division the place each staff is at present 2-2.
Alright, that is sufficient self-promotion for one week, let’s get to the picks.
NFL Week 5 Picks
Indianapolis (1-2-1) at Denver (2-2)
8:15 p.m. ET, Thursday (Amazon Prime)
If you happen to’ve ever puzzled what it was like to look at soccer again in 1928, you’ll be able to truly discover out this week by watching this sport. The Colts and Broncos have single-handedly set soccer again 94 years with their offensive play this season. I imply, the ahead move had barely been invented in 1928 and the Detroit Wolverines nonetheless managed to common 18.9 factors per sport. The Colts and Broncos aren’t even in a position to do this. By means of 4 weeks, the Colts are the lowest-scoring staff within the NFL (14.3 factors per sport) and the Broncos are the third-lowest scoring staff (16.5 factors per sport). If the Detroit Wolverines had been taking part in on this sport, I would choose them to win, however they are not, so I’ve to select considered one of these two groups.
The factor concerning the Colts and Broncos is that they really had an identical offseason: They each made a significant commerce for a beginning quarterback with the hopes that their new man would cause them to the Tremendous Bowl this yr, type of like Matthew Stafford did with the Rams and Tom Brady did with the Buccaneers. I do know we’re solely 4 weeks into the season, however I am beginning to suppose neither staff goes to get to the Tremendous Bowl.
So as to add some spice to this sport, the NFL ought to do away with the quarter system and simply give the win to the primary staff to attain 20 factors. Certain, it might take three days for that to occur, however it could be an entertaining three days.
This sport is about selecting the lesser of two evils and regardless that Russell Wilson is banged up, I feel I’ll go along with the Broncos. One cause is as a result of the Colts are dangerous and the opposite cause is as a result of that is the two-time zone particular: The Colts are flying two time zones west and within the historical past of “Thursday Evening Soccer,” highway groups are 2-13 straight-up and 2-12-1 towards the unfold in Thursday video games the place they must journey two or extra time zones west. Additionally, these two wins each got here from the Packers, which implies no different NFL staff has received on this actual state of affairs.
The choose: Broncos 20-17 over Colts
L.A. Chargers (2-2) at Cleveland (2-2)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Los Angeles Chargers
After 4 weeks of selecting Browns video games, I’ve come to comprehend that I’m not good at selecting Browns video games. The Browns have performed 4 video games up to now this yr and I am 0-4 selecting these video games. They’re the one staff within the NFL I’ve whiffed on in each sport this season. The Dolphins had been beforehand on this group, however I publicly shamed myself final week and acquired my choose proper, so that is what I’ll do right here with Cleveland.
In Week 1, I picked Carolina to beat Cleveland as a result of the Browns by no means win their opening sport they usually instantly responded by profitable their opening sport for the primary time in 18 years. So as to add insult to damage, my choose was solely incorrect as a result of a rookie kicker one way or the other hit a 58-yard discipline purpose.
In Week 2, I truly picked the Browns to win, and with 90 seconds left within the sport, I seemed like a genius as a result of they had been up 30-17 on the Jets. Since NFL groups had won 2,229 consecutive games when main by no less than 13 factors within the last two minutes, it appeared like a lock that the Browns would win, however as everyone knows, nothing is ever a lock with the Browns.
In Week 3, I predicted that the Browns would lose to the Steelers and I’ve to say, I have never been that incorrect about one thing because the time I attempted to persuade people who “Battleship” was a very good film. Spoiler alert: “Battleship” was not a very good film and any more, if I need to watch a movie based mostly on a board sport, I’ll keep on with “Clue.”
In Week 4, I predicted that the Browns would beat the Falcons and I feel Kevin Stefanski has it out for me, as a result of that is the one method to clarify all his weird choices in Cleveland’s 23-20 loss.
The underside line right here is that my Browns picks are beginning to get out of hand. It doesn’t matter what I predict, it finally ends up being incorrect. If I predicted the Browns to beat the Chargers by 13 this week, they might lose by 31.
For the reason that reverse of what I predict at all times appears to occur when the Browns play, I’ve determined to take that under consideration and I’ll predict the alternative of what I feel goes to occur. My intestine initially informed me to take the Browns as a result of we’ve a west coast staff taking part in an jap time zone sport within the early time slot, however I am ignoring my intestine and going with the Chargers.
With Myles Garrett banged up, the Browns pass-rush goes to undergo, which implies Justin Herbert might find yourself having a giant day.
The choose: Chargers 30-20 over Browns
Dallas (3-1) at L.A. Rams (2-2)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Los Angeles Rams
If I’ve discovered one factor throughout Cooper Rush’s NFL profession, it is that you need to by no means choose towards him. Cooper has made 4 begins in his profession and he’s now 4-0 with three of these wins coming this yr. I am not saying we should always get his Corridor of Fame bust prepared, however I am not not saying that.
As a lot as I would wish to ramble on right here about how the Cowboys are solely good due to Cooper Rush, I am not going to do this as a result of it isn’t precisely true. The Cowboys are 3-1 proper now as a result of their protection is destroying everybody: They will cease the run, they will cease the move and they’re exceptionally good at embarrassing opposing quarterbacks.
The Cowboys have totaled 15 sacks this season, which is the second-highest complete within the NFL. Alternatively, the Rams offensive line has been banged up all yr, which has turned the primary 4 weeks of the season right into a nightmare for Matthew Stafford.
If you happen to noticed what occurred to Stafford in Week 1 — he acquired sacked seven instances towards the Payments — then you definitely acquired a style of what would possibly occur to him this week. If you happen to noticed what occurred to Matthew Stafford on Monday evening — he acquired sacked seven instances towards the 49ers — then you definitely acquired a style of what would possibly occur to him this week. Stafford has been sacked 16 instances this season, which is tied for the second-most within the NFL, and based mostly on what I’ve seen from the Cowboys protection, they may double that complete.
The issue for the Rams is that they nearly by no means win win Stafford will get sacked two or extra instances in a sport. In Stafford’s 22 common season video games with the staff, the Rams are 11-1 when he will get sacked one time or much less, however simply 3-6 when he will get sacked a number of instances. Mainly, the Rams have a tricky time profitable when Stafford is getting beat up.
The opposite factor concerning the Cowboys protection is that nobody can rating on them. The Cowboys have but to give up 20 factors in any sport this yr, which is spectacular when you think about that they’ve already confronted quarterbacks like Joe Burrow and Tom Brady.
Since Dak Prescott went down, the Cowboys’ formulation for profitable video games has been fairly easy: Play nice protection and pray that Cooper Rush does not make any errors on offense. Effectively, the prayers have clearly been working as a result of Rush has zero interceptions by 4 weeks.
I don’t know if the Cowboys will likely be sticking with Rush for another week or turning the offensive reigns over to Dak Prescott, however I do not care, I am taking them it doesn’t matter what.
The choose: Cowboys 23-20 over Rams
Cincinnati (2-2) at Baltimore (2-2)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Based mostly on what I find out about these two groups, this sport goes to play out in considered one of two methods. The primary chance is that Joe Burrow throws for 700 yards and Cincinnati wins. The Bengals swept this collection final season for one large cause and that was Burrow, who completely shredded Baltimore’s protection. He threw for 416 yards in a single sport and 525 within the different. If you happen to do not keep in mind the 525 sport, the Bengals had been type of sufficient to chop up a video of each single throw he made. Ravens followers, you won’t need to watch the video under.
The factor about this yr’s sport is that the Ravens have not actually fastened something in relation to stopping the move. By means of 4 weeks, the Ravens are surrendering a mean of 315.3 yards per sport by the air, which is probably the most within the NFL. To place that quantity in perspective, NO OTHER TEAM has even given up greater than 300 yards per sport by the air.
The Ravens had been in a position to hold Josh Allen in test on Sunday, however they did get some assist from Mom Nature, who clearly just isn’t a Payments fan, which we have all recognized ever since she despatched that gust of wind that made Scott Norwood’s kick miss in Tremendous Bowl XXV. For this week’s sport, Mom Nature will likely be taking the week off. As an alternative of a torrential downpour, the forecast in Baltimore is asking for clear skies and a temperature of roughly 54 levels on Sunday evening, which I feel is Joe Burrow’s favourite temperature.
The opposite chance on this sport is that the Ravens construct a huge lead after which squander it away. If you happen to’ve watched any Ravens video games over the previous three weeks, then you definitely already know the formulation right here: The Ravens can have a giant lead sooner or later after which undergo a spectacular collapse that can nearly make you’re feeling sorry for them.
Though I am selecting towards the Ravens, I’ll say that selecting towards them after they’re taking part in at dwelling in prime time is at all times a danger. Over the previous 14 years, the Ravens are 14-1 in prime-time dwelling video games. On the flip aspect, the Ravens have misplaced 5 straight dwelling video games, so I assume I am going to simply keep on with the Bengals.
The choose: Bengals 34-31 over Baltimore
N.Y. Giants (3-1) vs. Inexperienced Bay (3-1) in London
9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Community)
Inexperienced Bay Packers
If the NFL was good, it could simply cancel this sport, as a result of there isn’t any method it’ll high the drama that the final London sport gave us with the Vikings beating the Saints 28-25. It was arguably probably the most dramatic battle to happen in England since William the Conqueror confirmed up on the Battle of Hastings in 1066.
Alternatively, possibly the NFL should not cancel this sport and that is as a result of followers in London are getting one thing they’ve by no means seen earlier than: A sport between two groups that each have a profitable report.
Throughout the 15-year historical past of the Worldwide Collection, the NFL has despatched so many dangerous video games over to London that I used to be 91% certain England was going to declare battle on us sooner or later. Since 2007, there have been a complete of 31 NFL video games performed in London and NOT ONE OF THEM has featured two groups that each had a profitable report going into the sport. Nevertheless, that streak will now be ending with the 3-1 Giants heading to London to face the 3-1 Packers.
On high of that, followers in London will even get to see Aaron Rodgers play up shut for the primary time. Over the previous 15 years, 31 of the NFL’s 32 groups have performed no less than one sport in England, however the Packers nonetheless haven’t. This Sunday will mark their first journey abroad for a daily season sport.
Though I simply spent two paragraphs hyping up the sport, I’ve now acquired some dangerous information for everybody in London: The Giants is perhaps right down to their third-string quarterback. Not solely is Daniel Jones coping with an ankle situation, however Tyrod Taylor is in concussion protocol, which implies there’s an opportunity that neither man will likely be accessible on Sunday. If that finally ends up being the case, the beginning will go to Davis Webb.
The excellent news for Webb and the Giants although is that so long as he can hand the ball off to Saquon Barkley, then New York ought to be capable of hold this shut, however I do not see them pulling off the upset right here.
The choose: Packers 23-20 over Giants
London picks report: 1-0
NFL Week 5 picks: All the remaining
Payments 31-17 over Steelers
Texans 24-21 over Jaguars
Vikings 27-20 over Bears
Saints 30-27 over Seahawks
Dolphins 34-24 over Jets
Buccaneers 26-23 over Falcons
Titans 24-17 over Commanders
Patriots 27-24 over Lions
Eagles 31-23 over Cardinals
49ers 24-16 over Panthers
Chiefs 34-27 over Raiders
Greatest choose: Final week, I predicted that the underdog Titans would go on the highway and beat the Colts and guess what occurred? The underdog Titans went on the highway and beat the Colts. Now, did I do know that Matt Ryan was going to show the ball over thrice with two fumbles and an interception? After all, I did. If there’s one factor Matt Ryan has perfected throughout his time in Indianapolis, it’s turning the ball over. By means of 4 weeks, Ryan has already fumbled the ball NINE instances, which is probably the most within the NFL. I don’t know what the single-season fumble report is, however I’ve to suppose Ryan is about to smash it….
what, I type of need to know the report now so I’ll look it up.
So it seems that the single-season fumble report was set by Kerry Collins, who had 23 in 2001 (Daunte Culpepper matched that complete in 2002). To place Ryan’s fumbling issues in perspective, he is on tempo for THIRTY-EIGHT. Issues have gotten so dangerous with Ryan that every time I am watching the RedZone channel and it flips to a Colts sport, I simply assume that they are solely doing it to indicate a loopy interception or one other fumble by Ryan. Ryan ought to simply get his personal channel and name it FumbleZone, and sure, I will be trademarking that by the tip of the week.
Worst choose: what, let’s hold this fumbling theme going. Final week, I fumbled away my choose within the Jaguars-Eagles sport. For some cause, I assumed the Jaguars might upset the Eagles and throughout the first half on Sunday, I truly thought it may need an opportunity of taking place, however then Trevor Lawrence went full Matt Ryan and began fumbling away every thing.
It was like he coated in his arms in Crisco earlier than the sport. I don’t know if he did, however I’ll now be boycotting each Crisco and the Jaguars simply to be protected.
Straight up in Week 4: 9-7
SU total: 33-30-1
In opposition to the unfold in Week 4: 5-9-2
ATS total: 25-36-3
You will discover John Breech on Fb or Twitter and if he isn’t doing a type of issues, he is in all probability consuming Crisco out of the can whereas watching highlights of the 1927 Detroit Wolverines.